At COP28, heads of state and government have pledged to collaborate in tripling the world's installed renewable energy generation capacity to a minimum of 11,000 GW by 2030. Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power are anticipated to constitute roughly 90% (55% for solar PV and 27% for wind) 1 of the renewable energy capacity additions over the next six years.
The attainment of this goal will be driven by past and ongoing cost reductions, coupled with enhanced good practices for rapid deployment, which are expected to persist due to a forecasted global manufacturing capacity reaching 1,100 GW by the end of 2024. Despite advancements in cost reductions for solar PV modules, capital expenditures (CAPEX), and installations, operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses are frequently underestimated. Limited research, especially in arid environments, has scrutinized these costs, which typically account for 20-25% of the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) in Europe but may be sensitively higher in arid regions.
The current prevalence of low Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), notably in GCC countries, has shifted attention towards reducing and optimizing operational costs, primarily influenced by O&M expenses, which directly impact the energy yield of PV plants. The significance of reducing O&M costs and increasing energy yield is further justified by the extended lifespan of current utility-scale PV plants, estimated to operate for 30 years, and the limited experience in arid and harsh regions. The primary metric for comparing energy production, the LCOE, is dependent on CAPEX, OPEX, and energy yield (also reliant on performance ratio and POA irradiance).
In this discussion, I will explore how OPEX, particularly its influence on energy yield, significantly affects the LCOE beyond CAPEX. I argue that the PV community and industry must focus on developing strategies and models to reduce various components of O&M (including corrective, predictive, and preventive measures) and enhance energy yield during the operational lifespan of PV plants. The discussion will emphasize the importance of cost optimization and reliability in expanding renewable energy capacity and the impact in arid regions.
Senior Research Director, Energy Center at Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI)